Not good.

BlackRock Credit Fund Hit With 19% Markdown As Loans Go Bad
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by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jan 26, 2026 - 10:25 AM
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp., a publicly traded private-credit fund structured as a business development company, filed an 8-K with the SEC late Friday afternoon, disclosing a 19% markdown in net asset value as troubled loans weighed on performance. The move marks one of the first major private credit signal woes of the new year.

The credit fund told investors in the 8-K filing that NAV fell from $8.71 as of Sept. 30 to $7.05 to $7.09, or about a 19% markdown.

"This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter," the fund said.

For a simpler translation: borrower-level stress intensified, loans deteriorated, and expected recovery values collapsed.


According to Bloomberg, the credit fund "has struggled in part because of its exposure to e-commerce aggregators — companies that buy and manage Amazon.com Inc. sellers — as well as troubled home improvement company Renovo Home Partners, which has filed for bankruptcy with plans to liquidate."

A TCPC fact sheet published Sept. 30 shows the fund holds 83% first-lien exposure across software, internet software and services, financial services, and other professional services.



Analyst coverage of TCPC is overwhelmingly negative.

There are zero "buy" recommendations among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, with three "hold" ratings and one "sell." The average 12-month price target stands at $6.50.



Shares of TCPC dropped 8.2% in after-hours trading on Friday following the filing.

Over a longer timeframe, the stock has slid back to COVID-era lows and remains locked in a multi-year bear market.



We've been closely tracking private credit markets, observing bumps along the way, to determine whether the cycle is beginning to show early signs of systemic risk or simply reflecting a normal credit downturn. While credit conditions have remained benign for an extended period, several emerging warning signs have begun to surface, which we have highlighted:

"There's No Emergency Here": Blue Owl CEO Says As Private Credit Provider Abandons Merger Plan

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

Regional Banks Crash As More Credit "Cockroaches" Emerge

As a reminder, last fall, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warned, "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more."

However, not everyone sees a crisis coming, despite the surge in supply.


We recently quoted Jeff Eason, Head of IG Credit at Citadel Securities, who says the market is in the early stages of a robust Capital Markets cycle, driven by Credit Expansion, fueling two themes:

M&A activity and broad corporate re-leveraging and

Growth in AI CapEx with debt usage becoming necessary/attractive to fund the mega cycle.

Jeffrey Gundlach has recently called out private lenders for making "garbage loans" and warned the next financial crisis will be in private credit.

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC that private credit is "lightly regulated, less transparent, opaque, and it's growing really fast, which doesn't necessarily mean there's a problem in the financial system, but it is a necessary condition for one."

The rumblings in private credit raise deeper questions about the soundness of the broader financial system and whether the Trump economy, with incoming tailwinds from data-center, power grid buildouts, and re-manufacturing trends, can withstand potential stress in credit markets.


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Major league forecast of economic and societal doom with analysis. Actually would be optimistic if we can avoid the Great Reset and Depopulation plan and just have hyperinflation and deflationary depression.

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THERE IS GOING TO BE A NEW WORLD DISORDER
By Egon von Greyerz
April 5, 2022

Excerpts from article:

As the world is experiencing the end of an economic era, we are getting the leaders that we deserve and thus the appropriate ones to take the world to Armageddon.

So the world is now entering the final battle, a battle with totally incompetent heads of state which will lead to everyone losing.

The route to Armageddon will be disastrous for the world. Distressed leaders will take calamitous actions, exacerbating not only their own country’s problem, but also the rest of the world’s.

And that is exactly what we are seeing now with the worst possible concoction of debt deficits, currency debasement and decadence. The consequences were of course always predictable based on history. But no leader in the current era is a real student of history. And that is why the world is in such a mess.

HYPERINFLATION FOLLOWED BY A DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION

I have in many articles outlined the course of events that I see from here – inflation, hyperinflation, debt collapse, asset collapse, leading to economic misery and eventually to a deflationary depression. “All Hell Will Break Loose for Humanity” as I wrote in a recent article.

There will be continued migration, but probably to a lesser extent since there will be no promised lands which will offer the migrants a better life. There will be isolationism and many countries will try to close their borders.

Sadly there will also be wars, cyber, civil and even major military wars. Mankind has never for any longer period stayed away from wars and especially not in periods of economic depression and high debts. Wars are such a wonderful excuse for poor leaders both to print more money and as a blame for the misery that the people suffer.

Western dominated media and propaganda are naturally blaming Putin for the war. And many leaders including Biden want him gone.

Rest of Detailed Article:
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