Agreed on that premise concerning the state of the world. What folks must realize is that nukes could easily end the planet.
However, the use of pathogens, or chemical warfare is less destructive vis a vis infrastructure. Yes, biologicals could also end the planet, but that scenario would be somewhat less likely percentage wise.
On the other hand, 1000 suitcase nukes in the hands of terrorists would devastate any country in hours.
The current conflict isn't just about just nukes, it's also about location, location, location.

He who controls the oil, controls the world.

quote:

Originally posted by JimmyB.:
Yes I find Trump very disappointing at the moment..I have to wonder how much he was onboard with the Covid scam also..
Well some undocumented migrant workers may be acceptable now is another scam played on us.

Politics is not a game where you get everything that you want. There has probably never been a president who has delivered so much of what his supporters voted for in so short a period of time. And I say that not even being a huge fan of Trump. If you aren't happy with him, who are you going to turn to?

My read on Trump is that he will be OK with smashing stuff in Iran from the air, but that will be about the extent of it. If we destroy Iran's nuclear program, it will be the greatest payoff we have ever received on billions of dollars of support to Israel. They did almost all the work and rolled out the red carpet for us to finish the job. That's a great deal.

As for the illegals, there was never a realistic path to get rid of them all. But the border is closed and they are trying to find the worst of them, which is a heck of an improvement. When all is said and done, we will still have millions of them and the only way to solve that problem is to put them on a path to citizenship, as long as they remain productive and otherwise law abiding. Nobody is enthusiastic about that, but anything else is and always has been a fantasy.

quote:

As for the illegals, there was never a realistic path to get rid of them all. But the border is closed and they are trying to find the worst of them, which is a heck of an improvement. When all is said and done, we will still have millions of them and the only way to solve that problem is to put them on a path to citizenship, as long as they remain productive and otherwise law abiding. Nobody is enthusiastic about that, but anything else is and always has been a fantasy.

Well in the last 6 months, over 1 million of these shit bags have self deported--and he is in fact rounding up the criminal elements in this group. But now he is stepping up roundup in the sanctuary cities--and this will increase the stampede of self deportations five fold quickly.

Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes...."

WED JUN 18, AT 7:20 AM
52,907
1,084

Strait of Hormuz being shit down.

JPMorgan's forecast of triple-digit Brent crude prices could soon be a reality as conflict risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. The waterway, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, remains one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Any disruption, particularly amid growing military escalation between Iran and Israel, could impact energy flows worldwide and send prices soaring.

The most concerning sign of potential maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz emerged in the overnight hours via a statement on X by former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi. While unofficial, the timing and seniority of the comment may reflect broader regime sentiment—or serve as a warning of what's to come.

"Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes will be able to pass through the strait without Iran's approval," Khandouzi said.

He stated, "This policy is decisive if it is implemented "in a timely manner." Any delay in its implementation means enduring more war inside the country. Trump's battle must be ended with a combination of economy and security."



Such messaging, especially when paired with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval activity in the region, raises the increasing probability of IRGC actions targeting commercial shipping lanes in the strait. This escalation could serve as the catalyst that turns JPMorgan's $120–$130 per barrel Brent crude forecast from a scenario into a market reality.

Some more excerpts from the full JPM note:

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—the world's busiest oil-shipping channel—would shut down the region's oil trade, supercharging oil prices.



The skinny waterway—at its narrowest point it is only 21 miles (33 km) wide— separating the UAE, Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, and facilitates the movement of some 30% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world's LNG supply (Table 1).



Widespread GPS jamming has been reported across the strait for the last several days:

Chokepoint Watch: GPS Jamming Impacts Tankers Across Strait Of Hormuz


Which unfolded into a maritime disaster early Tuesday when crude oil tanker Front Eagle slammed into the port quarter of the tanker Adalynn, sparking a massive fire on Adalynn, and concerns about a potential ecological disaster have surged.

First View: Oil Tanker Erupts In Flames After Collision Near Strait Of Hormuz


All in all, the world's most critical maritime chokepoint appears to be in the crosshairs of the Iranian regime. On Tuesday, President Trump met with his national security team for over an hour to discuss the Middle East and later held a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The key question now is whether the U.S. will enter the conflict. If it does, a shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is almost guaranteed—setting the stage for global energy markets to be thrown into turmoil.

Zerohedge.com

Watch markets, gold, bonds, and cryptos. This is phase2.

The oil rich kingdoms on the periphery of Iran would collapse shortly after closure of the Straits.

Excerpt from zerohedge article,

"The most concerning sign of potential maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz emerged in the overnight hours via a statement on X by former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi. While unofficial, the timing and seniority of the comment may reflect broader regime sentiment—or serve as a warning of what's to come."

It is hard to imagine how a country that doesn't have any control over its airspace is going to manage a blockade for more than a few hours.

They closed it years ago using mines.
As far air space goes,
don't know what the reality of the situation really is.
Attack aircraft must be constantly refueled via large tanker aircraft.

quote:

Originally posted by MAXIMUS PANDAMONIUS:
They closed it years ago using mines.
As far air space goes,
don't know what the reality of the situation really is.
Attack aircraft must be constantly refueled via large tanker aircraft.

Next step for us/Israel is to sink anything they have afloat that's any bigger than a rowboat.

If they don't have any vessels big enough to lay mines, they can't do much of a job of mine-laying.

As per Shinny, the Nimitz:
The Nimitz will be in Norfolk until the spring of 2027 to offload equipment and materials that can be repurposed. The ship will then move to HII-Newport News Shipbuilding to begin the estimated 30-month process of removing nuclear fuel and deactivating the carrier.
Oldest aircraft carrier USS Nimitz departs for what is likely ...

Shinny thinks the Nimitz could be sacrificed at the Straits. We will see

quote:

It is hard to imagine how a country that doesn't have any control over its airspace is going to manage a blockade for more than a few hours.

This comment and the comment from Brutus above shows just how little they know about that area. They are thinking in 1960's and 1970's terms still.

The straights are on one side lined by mountains and cliffs that stretch for over 50 miles--the are literally peppered with cave and hidey holes where the Iranians have dug in thousands of anti-ship missile positions... impossible to dig out by any means. Also these positions have mobile launchers and the whole area along the straights are heavily protected by air defenses.

The Iranians have been preparing and waiting for such an event like what is now unfolding for years now.

The are not just going to sew mines and and use suicide speed boats FYI. What would be effective is if we were to bring out these old WWII battleships (as they would with their armor be largely immune to such fire) and use the heavy guns to blast out these positions. But that's not going to happen even if they wanted too, as there are few projectiles left, no spare parts or gun barrels left and largely no one left alive (or willing to be drafted) who really knows how to operate these guns in the first place.

And yes, the Iranian can wreak havoc in the Straights of Hormuz for quite a while. And all that while gas prices are going to shoot throught the roof like a rocket. Closing the straights will shatter economies around the world.

Breaking... Turkey now announces that they back Iran. Also--Pakistani military leader is to meet with President Trump shortly. This is either to get dressed down by Trump, or to deliver a message to Trump by his government.... if so, most likely to deliver a message that Pakistan will use their nuclear arsenal in defense of Iran should things boil down to it.

Prediction... massive Israeli and US bombing campaign to unfold shortly in Iran--who will not buckle under BTW. This to unfold live on TV for the world to see, causing a unification of Islamic opinion against Israel and the USA... causing a coalition of several Islamic states to join in the fight against Israel. They being Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and a couple of other sitting in shock watching events unfold now.

This is going to be the new "Remember the Maine" moment...

Have fun running that shit--even in peace time...




FYI--the actual shipping channel that is navigable, is close to the Iranian coastline, about six miles out.