Your take?

Not much of a take--all seemed to be running as usual there. I understand they have a massive debt problem. Yen was around 155 to the dollar. Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto are overrun with foreign tourists, brining in loads of cash--yet the Japanese complain about them disrupting their peace. We went on a massive road trip in the south, which ended in a small town at the base of Mount Fuji. Some food stuff in even discount stores are stupidly expensive and the government should loosen up on food imports. The whole country is dotted with small inefficient farms, rapidly disappearing due to the average age of farmers being in their 60's. The middle men in the distribution system jack up prices. When my sister in law cam last March, I took her to Aldi and purchased a package of ham for leas than 4 bucks--and she was wowed by the size. Over there you buy ham in packages of three slices--strickly controlled by Nippon Ham. Purchased a three slab package of ribs from Costco also and my brother in law was blown away by it as you cannot even imagine to purchase something like that over there--let alone have the means to cook it in an oven and their homes routinely do not have ovens like we have over here.

People are still trudging to work every morning on the trains like ants--to slave 11 or 13 hours per day then rinse and repeat. I have not seen much social change except for the level of automation that has been introduced. FYI--you have to have an engineering degree just to flush a toilet over there as they are all computer controlled. Everything is heavily automated down to cashing out at a store, to purchasing and using train tickets.

Tnx for your take

quote:

Originally posted by Shinmen Takezo:
Not much of a take--all seemed to be running as usual there. I understand they have a massive debt problem. Yen was around 155 to the dollar. Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto are overrun with foreign tourists, brining in loads of cash--yet the Japanese complain about them disrupting their peace. We went on a massive road trip in the south, which ended in a small town at the base of Mount Fuji. Some food stuff in even discount stores are stupidly expensive and the government should loosen up on food imports. The whole country is dotted with small inefficient farms, rapidly disappearing due to the average age of farmers being in their 60's. The middle men in the distribution system jack up prices. When my sister in law cam last March, I took her to Aldi and purchased a package of ham for leas than 4 bucks--and she was wowed by the size. Over there you buy ham in packages of three slices--strickly controlled by Nippon Ham. Purchased a three slab package of ribs from Costco also and my brother in law was blown away by it as you cannot even imagine to purchase something like that over there--let alone have the means to cook it in an oven and their homes routinely do not have ovens like we have over here.

People are still trudging to work every morning on the trains like ants--to slave 11 or 13 hours per day then rinse and repeat. I have not seen much social change except for the level of automation that has been introduced. FYI--you have to have an engineering degree just to flush a toilet over there as they are all computer controlled. Everything is heavily automated down to cashing out at a store, to purchasing and using trai

n tickets.

Been doing historical research concerning the mongol invasion of Japan vs a small Samurai force.
That story line would make a great movie.

FYI: I admire Japanese culture immensely.

Stasta.com

Key economic indicators of Japan - statistics & facts
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Just a heads up.
Japan seems to be entering a new era. The country’s remarkable economic rise between the 1960s and 1980s was followed by three decades of stagnating economic growth and deflation, the so-called lost decades. Rapid economic growth made Japan the second-largest economy in the world in 1968 before the collapse of an asset price bubble in 1991 caused a lengthy period of recession. Economic stimulus and unprecedented monetary policy were introduced to counter the struggle with stagnation. Just recently, a rise in inflation suggests a turning point may have been reached.

Japan and CONUS are linked.

From Hal Turner



Hal Turner Radio Show
The "Experts" are Telling me "2026 Everything Comes Apart; Nothing Can Stop it"
Hal Turner
Nation
November 22, 2025
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The "Experts" are Telling me "2026 Everything Comes Apart; Nothing Can Stop it"


There's a $38 trillion time bomb ticking in the heart of the American financial system, and in 2026, it's going to detonate, not with the slow burn of a typical recession, but with the devastating speed of a controlled demolition.

Every domino is already in position, every fuse has been lit, and when the first one falls, the cascade will be unstoppable. Right now, as you're reading this, over $500 billion in corporate debt is racing toward a refinancing deadline.

Companies that borrowed money at 3% interest rates during the pandemic boom are about to face 9% rates when those loans come due. Banks that seemed rock solid are sitting on portfolios of commercial real estate loans that are worth half what they were two years ago, and the very institutions that were supposed to catch the falling pieces, private credit funds and leveraged loan markets, are quietly pulling back just when the system needs them most. This isn't another prediction about some distant economic downturn.

This is mathematical certainty. The numbers don't lie. The timeline is locked in.

And the mechanisms that will trigger this collapse are already in motion.

Every expert who saw 2008 coming, every economist who predicted the dot-com crash, every analyst who called the housing bubble, they're all saying the same thing: "2026 is the year everything breaks," but here's what makes this different from every other financial crisis in American history.

This time, the government can't save us, the Federal Reserve's ammunition is spent, the Treasury's balance sheet is maxed out, and the very foundation of American economic power, the bond market that has backstopped every crisis since World War II, is about to crack under the weight of unsustainable debt.

Let me show you exactly how this domino effect will unfold, stage by stage, month by month, institution by institution. Because once you see the pattern, once you understand the mechanics, you'll realize we're not approaching a financial crisis; we're already inside one. The dominoes have started falling. Most people just haven't noticed yet.

The Refinancing Wall

The first domino is already wobbling. It's called the refinancing wall, and it's coming at the American credit markets like a freight train. In 2020, 2021, and 2022, when interest rates were essentially zero, American companies went on the biggest borrowing binge in corporate history.

They issued bonds, they took out leveraged loans, they loaded up on debt because money was practically free. The average high yield bond issued during that period carried a coupon of around 5%. Leveraged loans were floating at similar rates.

Corporate America gorged itself on cheap credit. But here's the thing about debt. It doesn't last forever.

Those bonds come due. Those loans need to be refinanced. And in 2026, over $500 billion worth of this debt hits maturity all at once.

Companies that borrowed at 5% are going to face refinancing costs of 8, 9, maybe 10%. That's not just an increase, that's a fundamental shift in the economics of American business. A company that could comfortably service debt at 5% might be bankrupt at 10%.

Now you might think, well, these are big companies, they'll figure it out. They'll raise equity, they'll cut costs, they'll find a way. And some will.

The strong ones, the ones with fortress balance sheets and predictable cash flows, they'll survive. But the marginal companies, the ones that were already struggling, the ones that use cheap debt to paper over fundamental problems, they're going to fail. And when they fail, they're going to take their lenders with them.

The Shadow Banking System

This is where the second domino comes into play. The lenders aren't traditional banks anymore. Over the past decade, the American financial system has undergone a quiet revolution.

While everyone was focused on regulating banks after 2008, making them safer, forcing them to hold more capital, a shadow banking system emerged. Private credit funds, leveraged loan vehicles, collateralized loan obligations. These institutions stepped in to fill the lending gap left by regulated banks.

They now control over $250 trillion in assets globally. That's half of all financial assets on the planet. But here's the critical difference between these shadow banks and traditional banks.

Traditional banks are regulated. They have deposit insurance. They have access to Federal Reserve emergency lending.

They have government backstops. Shadow banks have none of that. When a traditional bank faces a crisis, regulators can step in, inject capital, arrange mergers, prevent contagion.

When a shadow bank fails, it just fails. And it takes its investors with it. Private credit funds have been the marginal buyers of risky corporate debt for the past five years.

When banks wouldn't lend, when bond markets got nervous, private credit stepped in. They became the lender of last resort for corporate America. But now as 2026 approaches, these funds are facing their own crisis.

I did this for you Shinmen, just in case.