Vgfed-dyrwq-M

This message has been edited. Last edited by: MAXIMUS PANDAMONIUS,

Damn. I told you to click on this thread

This message has been edited. Last edited by: MAXIMUS PANDAMONIUS,

I have to.. it's my job

As my kids used to lovingly hiss at me w/their inherited sense of humor...

biiiiiiiiitch

Well I am actually glad you clicked on it. I posted it to see if UB.'s is( has become) becoming an echo chamber.

Glp


I feel it deep in my bones, a persistent unsettling sense that something terrible is on the horizon. It isn’t a specific prediction or a set of facts, but an overwhelming intuition that taps into the same kind of inexplicable dread and fear I experienced through eight full days before 9/11. That memory of dread, although distant, feels new here and now.

With every passing hour, it becomes increasingly difficult to focus on anything other than this looming sense of impending doom. I find myself pausing, unable to stay focused, having chills at moments when the air seems to carry more weight than usual, as if it’s charged with the electricity of forewarning. The anxiety isn’t about the small, everyday troubles, it’s an almost primal alert that something massive and terrible might be unfolding very soon. Even though I don’t have details or the gift of foresight, this gut feeling remains unrelenting.

Is the universe is trying to communicate something urgent, stirring fear that we’re on the brink of witnessing something catastrophic? I am not a prophet, nor do I have a clear vision of what’s to come, but the intensity of this inner alarm compels me to listen.

Just sharing for what it's worth.

I have tried warning y'all about what's coming
That is all I can do.

We as nation are fast becoming a footnote in history. Trust me on that and prepare.

Glp

The U. S. Postal Service announced Tuesday that it has temporarily stopped accepting international packages from China and Hong Kong Posts until further notice.

The big picture: It was not immediately clear whether the action was due to counter-tariffs that China's government announced earlier Tuesday in response to 10% tariffs on Chinese products imposed by President Trump's administration.

Trump had vowed in his first-term to overhaul America's mail carrier, in a move that could undercut reliable delivery, impact hundreds of thousands of government jobs and influence how e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein operate.

[link to www.axios.com (secure)]

damned

The financial cost of halting commercial package shipments from China and Hong Kong depends on several factors, including lost consumer spending, increased tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and business losses. Here’s an estimate based on available data:

Estimated Financial Impact Per Month

1. Daily Volume of Packages: Before the suspension, about 3 million packages were shipped daily from China to the U.S.


2. Average Value Per Package: Many of these packages fall under the de minimis exemption (under $800), but a conservative estimate places the average package value at $50-$100.


3. Total Monthly Trade Volume Lost:

At $50 per package: $4.5 billion per month (3M × $50 × 30 days)

At $100 per package: $9 billion per month



Additional Economic Costs

Retailer & E-commerce Losses: Companies like Shein, Temu, and smaller resellers will suffer billions in lost revenue, potentially raising consumer prices.

U.S. Consumer Spending: Americans spent over $50 billion on Chinese e-commerce imports in 2023. A prolonged shutdown could reduce discretionary spending and increase inflation.

Supply Chain Costs: Companies shifting to alternative suppliers or domestic production may face higher costs, affecting both businesses and consumers.


Projected Costs Over Time

1 Month: $4.5B - $9B in lost trade, plus indirect effects.

3 Months: $13.5B - $27B

6 Months: $27B - $54B

12 Months: $54B - $108B


These are conservative estimates and don't fully capture secondary effects like job losses in fulfillment centers, shipping, and related industries. If the suspension lasts long-term, it could lead to hundreds of billions in losses across global supply chains.

Last Edited by News Hound

Please add to this thread. Up to date info is our only defense.

Zerohedge

US Postal Service Suspends Shipments Of Parcels From China, Hong Kong
Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Feb 04, 2025 - 11:49 PM
The US Postal Service has suspending inbound international packages from China and Hong Kong Posts, delaying or blocking shipments from giant online retailers, and Amazon competitors, like Shein and PDD’s Temu. USPS said letters and flat mail from China and Hong Kong would not be affected, according to a statement on its website.



Potential reasons behind the suspension could be to ensure the tariff is enforced and not bypassed by potential loopholes such as exporting multiple packages of smaller value items (see more here). While it’s not clear what prompted the move, it followed Trump's decision to revoke a “de minimis” rule for China, which previously allowed small packages under $800 to enter the US duty-free. This exemption, often used by Chinese-linked e-commerce companies, was removed as part of a new 10% tariff on goods from China and Hong Kong, which took effect just after midnight Tuesday Washington time.

Washington is cracking down on a loophole that retailers like Temu and Shein have used for years to expand in the US, allowing them to ship high volumes of small packages and gain an edge over competitors like Amazon.com Inc. Critics say the flood of parcels from China is difficult to track and may contain illegal or dangerous goods.

According to US Customs and Border Protection data quoted by Bloomberg, the total volume of de minimis shipments into the US hit 1.4 billion packages in fiscal year 2024, about double the number in 2022. Predictably, discount online retailers like Temu and Shein contributed significantly to the spike in volume.

However, disruptions from the move may be more limited now than it would have been in previous years, as other postal operators have taken over the USPS’s role in handling cross-border lightweight e-commerce packages, including those from China, according to a US Office of Inspector General report in May 2023.

US officials have alleged that parcel mail, direct from China and via third-party countries, is a gateway for illicit drugs, including deadly fentanyl. “What the cartels in China have done is exploit that loophole to smuggle in not just fentanyl but all sorts of drugs,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told Politico in an event in Washington Tuesday.

The China tariff order took effect even as two others, for Mexico and Canada, were put on hold. Trump has hinted at a possible call with Chinese leadership this week, though details remain unclear. While the White House has not ruled out a deal to pause the Chinese tariffs, which could also impact the Postal Service’s ban, nothing has been confirmed yet.

Shares of Alibaba fell more than 2% in Hong Kong, while JD.com tumbled more than 5%, while the Hang Seng China index losses also extend, down 1.8% now.

In a Goldman note published late on Tuesday, the bank tried to assess the impact of Trump's removal of the de-minimis exemption on China's e-commerce platforms, where PDD's Temu has the highest US exposure amongst China cross-border players. Here are some of the highlights from the report (full note available to pro subs in the usual place).

For PDD, US contributes to around ~40% of GMV for Temu, while Temu was a 10% loss drag to PDD group profit in FY24E (and with minimal valuation implied by PDD's current market cap). Despite the new regulations, Goldman believes cost advantages of eCommerce platforms vs. US offline retailers will continue given the lower cost structures for online businesses (fewer layers between factories and end consumers), while Chinese platforms will continue to diversify their merchant bases beyond China to local merchants.

An evolving Temu business model and global diversification prior to these developments in tariff policy development, where Goldman has seen:
1) Temu's geographical diversification with the US contribution to Temu's global MAU from 100% at the time of launch in early-2023, down to its latest at 15% of Temu's global MAU as of Dec 2024 as per the latest eCommerce tracker, with fast expansions in South America and the Middle East;
2) Temu's ongoing US business model evolve from full-entrusted model (direct air freight shipments that enjoy de-minimis exemptions), to a rapidly growing semi-entrusted model that has recently reached 25% of Temu US GMV as of Sept-2024 (where merchants ship products by sea freight under traditional trade ahead of time); and,
3) Temu's business model has expanded beyond air freight direct shipments, with the semi-entrusted models launched in 19 countries as of Jan-2025 that do not depend on de-minimis.
The limited value that has been ascribed by the market to the Temu business in PDD's current market cap, as investors have been anticipating pending regulatory clarity around U.S. tariffs, multiple countries' de-minimis rules, personal data, etc. before being willing to ascribe any meaningful value to the Temu business, despite the fact that the Temu app reached 350mn MAU in Dec 2024.
Looking ahead, the key to watch will be any further tariffs/tax applied for cross-border eCommerce goods, and development of any risks related to targeted tariffs on China imports/app bans/expansion of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Entity List etc. that could pose a potential impact to Temu's US operations. Meanwhile, Goldman expects ongoing geographical diversification away from the U.S. and business model shifts, including further expanding the launch of its 3P marketplace to local US merchants (local-to-local sourcing) and semi-entrusted model for cross-border eCommerce platforms. Of course, none of that will help Temu if other countries piggyback on similar sanctions as the US.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

18,389194
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There's a war coming. Will start in Mideast or Britain. It will involve nukes

Economically er are facing a super depression of BIBLICAL proportions.

It's 2:34 in the morning here in the Midwest. Was summoned
out of a deep sleep to post here. The spirit world is warning me as to our future. Not too bright.

Glp

Unhinged Democrats Protest In Front of Treasury, Attack Musk, Call For Violence: “Goddammit! Shut Down the Senate… We are At War!”
Unhinged Democrat lawmakers protested Elon Musk’s DOGE team in front of the Treasury Department on Tuesday evening.

Democrat Reps. Ayanna Pressley and LaMonica McIver called for violence during the “Nobody Elected Elon” protest outside the Treasury Department.

“We will not take this!” Rep. LaMonica McIver shouted before attacking Elon Musk. “We will fight back! And goddammit shut down the Senate! We are at war!”

WATCH:


Rep. LaMonica McIver: "GODDAMN IT SHUT DOWN THE SENATE…. WE ARE AT WAR." pic.twitter.com/PtytpbIl4M

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 4, 2025

War and civil war coming I do believe.

Good, TEMU is a rip off, serves them right. More Winning

quote:

Originally posted by MAXIMUS PANDAMONIUS:
War and civil war coming I do believe.

nothing will happen

The Chinese stuff is junk. Or ends up in the trash in a few months. Or once it’s washed.

Our country’s been in trouble for 4 years now. It’s been obvious, but the people are just now noticing it.

I’m glad I am old and have lived a full life. I’m sorry for the younger generations.

I will be honored to go out fighting for what is right. Hopefully my family all goes out together. That’s what we want.