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Roosevelt cut off Japan from oil July 26, 1941. Pearl Harbor occurred 6 months later
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Picture of Alaska
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Pearl Harbor's death knell was sounded on July 26, 1941. This is the day President Franklin D. Roosevelt cut off the Japanese empire from American oil in response to Tokyo's aggression on the Asian mainland. This left the Imperial Navy with just 18 months supply of fuel.
 
Posts: 8398 | Registered: November 07, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Putin cut off European gas Sept 1, 2022. Six months later will be sometime in February 2023.
 
Posts: 8398 | Registered: November 07, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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A military friend of mine up here pointed this out to me this week and said he was going full time acquiring supplies for his expectation of shortages.
 
Posts: 8398 | Registered: November 07, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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There are similarities, but also differences. Japan wasn't facing an enemy with nukes or even with large amounts of conventional weapons sitting in range. That is likely to keep Europe out of anything but a proxy war with Russia unless Russia does expand beyond Ukraine, which doesn't look like something that is going to happen soon at their current pace in Ukraine.

Germany also has nuclear and many other European countries have coal plants that can be restarted and you can bet that some winter suffering will bring about the political changes to make that happen.

I can imagine lots of possibilities, but not Europe picking a bigger fight with Russia. Europe is not isolated like Japan was or Russia is. They are probably going to suffer a worse economic contraction than the rest of the world, but not worse than Russia. I can't imagine what Russia's strategic plan is at this point. They will probably take Ukraine eventually, but they will be so weakened in the process that they won't be able to fight another war for decades.

The more interesting question is whether protracted suffering might bring about political realignment in Europe. There are already a lot of Germans sympathetic to Russia and people tend to find reasons to ally with people who have the things that they need. And that would really screw with Europe, given the number of countries in between Russia and Germany that are absolutely hostile to any Russian aims.

I would argue that Russia is more akin to WW2 Japan and has already committed its Pearl Harbor in the Ukraine. It is a country with no future, trying to leverage its energy and military stockpile into a slightly more stable position. But it will be a long and difficult road to get there and their biggest challenge may be that they were already running out of Russians. That is now accelerated by throwing breeding age men into the meat grinder. People lament the deindustrialization of the USA, but we didn't lose nearly as much industry as Russia did following the collapse of the USSR and we have been adding it back at a rapid pace recently. Russia now faces trying to rebuild just the industries that it has, which were heavily globalized and now isolated. I think the main thing we have to fear with Russia is that they are weaker than we imagine. A weak and desperate enemy with nukes is very, very dangerous.
 
Posts: 2843 | Registered: April 13, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by dissimulo:
I think the main thing we have to fear with Russia is that they are weaker than we imagine. A weak and desperate enemy with nukes is very, very dangerous.



I think we have to be careful with thoughts that they are weaker (conventionally) than we imagine.

There are reports from Chinese dissidents that Russia has its best troops and equipment sequestered over in the far eastern part of their country.

Why? Because they have other operations in mind beyond taking Ukraine.

I think the reason they've had so much trouble in Ukraine is, considering OTHER objectives they have in mind in the longer term, they locked themselves into an economy of force calculation based on their thoughts that the Ukraine war was going to be much easier than it has turned out to be.

It has been pretty obvious that they have not committed their best troops and equipment to the Ukraine war and also have not committed nearly the quantity that they could have committed, *IF* they didn't have other objectives in mind.


Frown


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Posts: 2591 | Location: southwest Mississippi | Registered: August 20, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I have been wrong plenty of times before, but I really doubt estimations of hidden Russian strength. They have had an economy the size of Italy. They don't have the ability to get back to even that without a lot of outside help and the only help they are going to get is from China. But China was already heading into the predicted mid-century doldrums at the end of this decade and they have brought it on much sooner by repeatedly shooting themselves in both feet with their Covid madness. We also recently learned that they have been lying or possibly even just disastrously wrong about their census for the past 40 years and it turns out they don't have nearly as many young people as we/they thought. So, strong China is about to end. They will still be a hell of a lot stronger than Russia, but they are not going to be in a position where they can risk a lot on helping to prop them up. The next decade looks bad for both Russia and China. The question is how much of their pain are they going to inflict on the rest of the world?

I think it is quite likely that Russia has committed the best troops and equipment that they can afford to lose to Ukraine. Sure, they have modern naval, air, and nuclear equipment, but not a lot (except nukes) and they can't replace anything that gets destroyed. You need the good stuff for defense. A year from know, we'll know one way or the other.
 
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Originally posted by dissimulo:
We also recently learned that they have been lying or possibly even just disastrously wrong about their census for the past 40 years
A close friend of mine escaped China about 40 years ago but stays in close contact with many friends there. She said it was standard practice for civic operations for numbers to just be made up. So much easier than ensuring accurate numbers, and maybe for political considerations as well. She said there is no quality control over any of it, you just can't trust any numbers coming out of China.
 
Posts: 1423 | Registered: August 04, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Cutting off energy or food to a country is not unlike cutting off water and air to an animal, I wouldn’t be surprised at anything looking forward to winter and spring in Europe.
 
Posts: 8398 | Registered: November 07, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tardigrade A+
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The Europoors have plenty of fuel options. They have just decided they would rather freeze and starve than upset a teenage autistic retard with fetal alcohol syndrome.

HOW DARE YOU

 
Posts: 1596 | Location: Vagina Gulch | Registered: April 08, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Might really suck for them if the Beaufort Gyre brakes loose at an inopportune time.
 
Posts: 1596 | Location: Vagina Gulch | Registered: April 08, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post



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This is all by design. This is it boys. The end of the debt-based monetary system is at hand. Zoltan spelled it out for you. Commodities based currency basket.

When all else fails, they bring you to war.
 
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Good analysis, Diss.

Thumbs Up


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Posts: 4151 | Registered: August 15, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I hate Putin but did anyone really think sanctions were the right move..Russia has oil gas and a pretty good food supply from what I see..
 
Posts: 2401 | Location:  | Registered: April 23, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by dissimulo:
I have been wrong plenty of times before, but I really doubt estimations of hidden Russian strength. They have had an economy the size of Italy. They don't have the ability to get back to even that without a lot of outside help and the only help they are going to get is from China. But China was already heading into the predicted mid-century doldrums at the end of this decade and they have brought it on much sooner by repeatedly shooting themselves in both feet with their Covid madness. We also recently learned that they have been lying or possibly even just disastrously wrong about their census for the past 40 years and it turns out they don't have nearly as many young people as we/they thought. So, strong China is about to end. They will still be a hell of a lot stronger than Russia, but they are not going to be in a position where they can risk a lot on helping to prop them up. The next decade looks bad for both Russia and China. The question is how much of their pain are they going to inflict on the rest of the world?

I think it is quite likely that Russia has committed the best troops and equipment that they can afford to lose to Ukraine. Sure, they have modern naval, air, and nuclear equipment, but not a lot (except nukes) and they can't replace anything that gets destroyed. You need the good stuff for defense. A year from know, we'll know one way or the other.



I think your analysis fails to take into account the possibility/likelihood that Russia and China (and others) are or will be allied against the West. The supposed Russia/China "split" was a bunch of trumped up malarkey that was designed to do exactly what it did: Get us to buddy up with China in opposition to the Soviet Union, and thereby weaken us in the future.

Also, when it comes to the size of their economy vs. the US, for example, you can't really do a real "apples to apples" comparison on defense spending. I find it very hard to believe that, for example, a top-notch defense industry engineer or tradesman in Russia makes the kind of money their counterparts in the US make. And we know for damned sure that their soldiers/sailors/airmen and officers don't make the kind of money that their Western counterparts make.

Further, two countries that appear to be headed into a decline when looked at in terms of the current world situation seem more likely, I think, to team up (along with their buddies NKorea, Iran, etc.) to do a bit of resource seizing to enrich themselves. Add into that mix an occurrence that I think is very likely to happen - Turkey openly changing sides and aligning with Russia, China, etc. - and I think we have a situation to face that we will not be able to deal with effectively.

Frown


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Posts: 2591 | Location: southwest Mississippi | Registered: August 20, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by JimmyB.:
I hate Putin but did anyone really think sanctions were the right move..Russia has oil gas and a pretty good food supply from what I see..


Generally speaking, in war, the stronger economy wins. If you can strangle your enemy's economy, you can stop their advances. If you can't maintain and build military equipment, you can't fight. Much of the Russian energy infrastructure was built and maintained by global companies with parts and technicians from elsewhere. This stuff won't all fall apart overnight, but it puts a lot of pressure on Russia. The west also suffers, but we have a much larger economy and can weather much greater damage. So, I'd say that sanctions are a good idea, assuming that we are willing to pay the price to save Ukraine. And since the war probably would not have ended with Ukraine, I'd say it is smart to pay the price now. If you can stop your enemy with money, it sure beats stopping them with piles of your dead citizens.
 
Posts: 2843 | Registered: April 13, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by Brutus:
I think your analysis fails to take into account the possibility/likelihood that Russia and China (and others) are or will be allied against the West. The supposed Russia/China "split" was a bunch of trumped up malarkey that was designed to do exactly what it did: Get us to buddy up with China in opposition to the Soviet Union, and thereby weaken us in the future.


I think this very unlikely because China cannot survive without us. We are their economy. They can't sell enough to Russia and North Korea to make any difference. They don't have nearly enough internal market to be self sufficient. Take away the US market and China collapses almost immediately. The only way I can see a future in which China and Russia ally to take on the west is if they simply launch a massive nuclear strike and hope for the best and, happily, I don't think that is remotely likely. Both are entering into periods where they will suffer from long standing demographic problems of their own making that will reduce their economic and military powers. Russia and China are both at their peaks for the next few decades now, facing long slumps that can only be corrected with lots of baby making.
 
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Originally posted by dissimulo:
quote:
Originally posted by Brutus:
I think your analysis fails to take into account the possibility/likelihood that Russia and China (and others) are or will be allied against the West. The supposed Russia/China "split" was a bunch of trumped up malarkey that was designed to do exactly what it did: Get us to buddy up with China in opposition to the Soviet Union, and thereby weaken us in the future.


I think this very unlikely because China cannot survive without us. We are their economy. They can't sell enough to Russia and North Korea to make any difference. They don't have nearly enough internal market to be self sufficient. Take away the US market and China collapses almost immediately. The only way I can see a future in which China and Russia ally to take on the west is if they simply launch a massive nuclear strike and hope for the best and, happily, I don't think that is remotely likely. Both are entering into periods where they will suffer from long standing demographic problems of their own making that will reduce their economic and military powers. Russia and China are both at their peaks for the next few decades now, facing long slumps that can only be corrected with lots of baby making.



I hope you're right.

According to the study I've been doing for the last 20+ years, I fear that you're not.

China's US market doesn't matter once they've decided to move from a normal, peacetime existence to a war footing.

What do you make of the secret recording of the party meeting in Guangdong province back in May that shows their PTB giving orders to their military and commercial interests to re-equip "X" amount of commercial shipping to military use? That "X" amount was far in excess of what they'd use to invade Taiwan, and that was just for Guangdong province, not Fujian (immediately adjacent to Taiwan) or any of the others.


Confused


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Posts: 2591 | Location: southwest Mississippi | Registered: August 20, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I find it very hard to believe that, for example, a top-notch defense industry engineer or tradesman in Russia makes the kind of money their counterparts in the US make. And we know for damned sure that their soldiers/sailors/airmen and officers don't make the kind of money that their Western counterparts make.


No, these defense engineers DO NOT make western salaries. No way near the amounts... but for every 9 dollars the USA wastes on defense, Russia only spends 1 dollar--getting more bang for their buck. Same with their soldiers. Pay is lower. But the cost of living in Russia is much lower and the taxes are not nearly like they are here in the USA.

And you will notice that over the last 30 years, they have tossed away the old 'quantity over quality' strategy. Their shit is top of the line and on par with US made weaponry--and even exceeding what we have in our arsenals (see the hypersonic missile systems). Their electronic warfare systems are also years ahead of what we possess. And look at the Alligator attack helicopter--which is about on par with the Apache choppers we have here. In fact they are faster and carry more payload. Also they are easier and cheaper to build and maintain in the field under harsh conditions (which the Apache is not).

The US wastes a shit ton of money on shit--while the Russians hone in on more clever weapons systems--and get a bigger dividend for their money spent. They have to take this strategy because their economy is much smaller than ours.

We do not want to get into a full-on conflict with Russia because we would get three legs kicked out from out table from the canned sunshine--along with half our teeth knocked out before the end of such a conflict (as in being sent back to the 19th Centuray).
 
Posts: 8288 | Registered: August 15, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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What do you make of the secret recording of the party meeting in Guangdong province back in May that shows their PTB giving orders to their military and commercial interests to re-equip "X" amount of commercial shipping to military use? That "X" amount was far in excess of what they'd use to invade Taiwan, and that was just for Guangdong province, not Fujian (immediately adjacent to Taiwan) or any of the others.


Don't know what to make of that yet. It could have been a type of hypothetical 'exercise' and broadcast (as we saw) to other CCP wonks via closed circuit TV. Or--it could have been a preview into coming attractions. But you should always think the worse of the gooks as their entire culture is based on screwing the other guy.
 
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Originally posted by Shinmen Takezo:
quote:
What do you make of the secret recording of the party meeting in Guangdong province back in May that shows their PTB giving orders to their military and commercial interests to re-equip "X" amount of commercial shipping to military use? That "X" amount was far in excess of what they'd use to invade Taiwan, and that was just for Guangdong province, not Fujian (immediately adjacent to Taiwan) or any of the others.


Don't know what to make of that yet. It could have been a type of hypothetical 'exercise' and broadcast (as we saw) to other CCP wonks via closed circuit TV. Or--it could have been a preview into coming attractions. But you should always think the worse of the gooks as their entire culture is based on screwing the other guy.



Yeah, just like your suck-buddies the Russians.

If you don't believe me, take Patton's word for it:


"The difficulty in understanding the Russian is that we do not take cognizance of the fact that he is not a European, but an Asiatic, and therefore thinks deviously. We can no more understand a Russian than a Chinaman or a Japanese, and from what I have seen of them, I have no particular desire to understand them, except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them. In addition to his other Asiatic characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and is an all out son of bitch, barbarian, and chronic drunk."

- Gen. George S. Patton


Smile


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Posts: 2591 | Location: southwest Mississippi | Registered: August 20, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post



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